Fiscal Risk Management of Public–Private Partnership Projects: A Multidimensional Identification and Assessment Framework

Abstract

In public–private partnership (PPP) projects, governments often need to provide guarantees to investors because of the risks created by the large scale of the investments and the long tenures of the projects. Yet, research on the assessment of fiscal risk in PPP projects remains scarce. Based on the theory of project life-cycle management, this study constructed a multidimensional identification and assessment framework for PPP fiscal risk. A fiscal risk matrix model was developed, and feasibility, standardization, and sustainability were identified. These were categorized into three dimensions of PPP fiscal risk, and their indicators’ hierarchical levels were evaluated and ranked. A risk model, called the fuzzy evaluation model of PPP fiscal risk, which shows the value of the comprehensive evaluation of PPP fiscal risk based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach, is proposed. The results demonstrate the significance of this valuation for both governments and investors, providing a clear reference when they face pressure from the fiscal risks of PPP projects.