Fiscal Policy And Nigerian Economic Growth

This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run, stock markets have no positive and at best mixed effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative/mixed or inconclusive results on the effects of stock markets on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that, there is the need for increasing financial deepening and the removal of bottlenecks in the financial sectors of the economy by providing further public and institutional education on the value of stock markets for economic development.

The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) nations understood that having enough money in easily accessible foreign accounts would be beneficial to the government in times of fiscal crisis, currency devaluation, natural economic calamity, and even political upheaval to help cushion sustainable economic growth. Between Q1 2005 and Q4 2020, the study looked at the impact of Nigeria's sovereign wealth fund on the country's ability to sustain economic development. In order to conduct the empirical analysis, the study used the ARDL technique of analysis. In order to prevent erroneous regression results, unit root tests were performed on each of the variables. The co-integration test revealed that there is a long-term (or equilibrium) relationship between Nigeria's sovereign wealth fund and the sustainability of its economic growth. It was revealed that Nigeria's gross domestic product was significantly impacted by the Nigerian Infrastructural Fund. Last but not least, it was revealed that the stability Fund has a considerable impact on GDP in Nigeria. Future Generation Fund was also found to have a big impact. On the whole, SWF impact significantly on sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. If government wishes to maintain economic growth and improve the lives of Nigerians, it should demand and pursue effective control and monitoring of the infrastructure, future and stabilization funds.

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Nigeria. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: FDI positively impacts Nigeria's economic growth by fostering capital formation and technology transfer. However, this relationship is influenced by factors like institutional quality and governance effectiveness. Challenges such as infrastructure deficits and policy instability hinder FDI's full potential. Thus, creating a favorable investment climate and implementing sound economic policies are crucial for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The theory of foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth, the dependency theory & the institutional theory may be used to anchor future studies on analyze the foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Nigeria. Fostering investment in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology can contribute to economic diversification, employment generation, and skill development, thereby fostering sustainable economic growth. Nigerian authorities should focus on improving the investment climate by implementing reforms aimed at reducing bureaucratic hurdles, streamlining business processes, and enhancing transparency.

This study examined the impact of human resources development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2019. To achieve this objective, data were collected on the real gross domestic product, government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health and human development index from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, World Bank -World Development Indicator and UNDP. The study adopted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Co-integration test and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) methods of econometric to analyse the collected data. Evidence from the findings revealed that all the variables were individually integrated of Order One and have a long-run relationship. The parsimonious ECM result revealed that an increase in government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health, as well as human development index, do not significantly increase economic growth in Nigeria during the period of study. The study concluded that human resources development via public spending in the education sector, health sector, as well as an increase in human development index remains crucial in the process of achieving sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommended among others that crucial effort should be made by the government in channelling more funds to the health sector in order to improve health standards and reduce the mortality rate of the citizens since a healthy population and workforce is a major ingredient for rapid and sustainable productivity and growth. Enough funds should be allocated to education for proper utilization of potential productive and social benefits that will help to boost the real sector of the economy.

The papers attempt to validate/invalidate economic growth sustainability vis-à-vis external financing of budget in Nigeria. The external financing channels - multilateral, Paris Club, London Club, promissory notes, bilateral, Euro bond, diaspora debts, and others - were tracked in relation to economic growth sustainability. The data is accessed from Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research [EDGAR], the World Bank Development Indicator (WDI), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, for forty years (1981 to 2020). The study analysis follows plotting the visual trend of the series to ascertain its movement over time. Likewise, descriptive inference – skewness (sk), Kurtosis (k) & Jacque-Bera (JB) statistics were inferred for series normality. Also, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, cointegration, vector autoregression (VAR), and the impulse response function (IRF) technique formed the basis of the estimation tools. Finding validates that there is no significant long-run relationship between external financing of the budget and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. As a result, a reduction, and or a stop to further contracting external financing for budget purposes, and ensuring a funding-project-tied, is strongly recommended.

The potential of ecotourism for sustainability economic growth in Nigeria cannot overemphasized due to the opportunities and challenges it brings. Ecotourism plays a crucial role in Nigeria’s economy and sustainability by driving revenue generation, job creation, and environmental conservation. It fosters responsible travel practices, reducing environmental degradation while enhancing conservation efforts. Ecotourism drives sustainable economic growth by creating jobs. Theoretically, economic and environmental theories associated with ecotourism includes Sustainable Development Theory, Ecological Modernization Theory, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory, Triple Bottom Line (TBL) Theory, and Common-Pool Resource (CPR) Theory. Ecotourism at global level that have been examined are that of Costa Rica and Kenya. Major ecotourism sites in nigeria include Yankari Game Reserve (Bauchi State), Cross River National Park (Cross River State), Obudu Mountain Resort (Cross River State), Gashaka-Gumti National Park (Taraba and Adamawa States), Erin-Ijesha Waterfalls (Osun State). Policies governing ecotourism in Nigeria are National Ecotourism Policy, The Forestry and Wildlife Conservation Policies, and the Nigeria Tourism Development Master Plan. Its contribution includes employment generation, contribution to GDP, and infrastructure development. Challenges includes inadequate infrastructure, weak policy implementation, poor governance, security challenges, environmental degradation and climatic change. The qualitative methodology approach has been used in form of a systematic literature review.

This paper employed Granger causality tests amid infrastructure spending, economic growth, and employment in Nigeria for the period 1960-2017 using vector autoregression (VAR) model. The result showed a strong causality between infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Findings of the study shows a strong underlying relationship between e infrastructure investment and job creation. Economic growth seems to be the key drivers of government jobs and that the private sector jobs drives growth, however, public jobs have not been able to translates into additional jobs in the economy. The bounds test results specify the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship between infrastructure investment, economic growth, job creation and output thereby providing a theoretical underpinning for the empirical results.

This paper examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation policies and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Employing the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) – bounds testing approach and using GDP per capita as economic growth indicator, the paper establishes a long run relationship between economic growth and interest rate liberalisation, which is represented by an index calculated using principal component analysis (PCA). The empirical findings of this paper show that interest rate liberalisation policies have a positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. These results apply irrespective of whether the test is conducted in the short run or in the long run. This supports the numerous past studies, which have reported positive results regarding the effects of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that interest rate liberalisation policies have been very effective in bolstering economic growth in Nigeria.

The persistent economic challenges have prompted investigation about the effectiveness of commercial banks’ credit in driving economic growth in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper is to determine the relationship between commercial banks’ credit distributed to the various sectors and economic growth in Nigeria from 2014q1 to 2023q4 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin is the secondary source from where the data for the study were collected. The theoretical framework of the study is finance-led growth hypothesis. The commercial banks’ credit distributed to production and general commerce sectors had a positive relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The commercial banks’ credit distributed to government and services sectors had a negative relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. A higher percentage of commercial banks’ credit should be distributed to production and general commerce sectors than government and services sectors in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Institutions, Economic Growth, ARDL Model, Nigeria.

The study examined the effect of macro-economic variables on economic growth in Nigeria between 1990-2022. Specifically, the paper examined the effect of Exchange rate on Economic growth in Nigeria and determined the effect of interest rate on Economic growth in Nigeria. The paper employed ex-facto research design, using secondary data and adopted SVAR model. The paper found out that interest rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria, and found that exchange rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables has a significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the study’s findings and conclusions above, the following recommendations were made: the government should improve on her foreign reserves as an absolute measure that will stabilize exchange rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria, and interest rate is found to have increased the potentials of Economic growth in Nigeria. It is therefore important to note that since interest rate have significantly affected the Economic growth in Nigeria, the CBN should improve on discount rate to stabilize interest rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria.

This study investigates the impact of agriculture, industry, and the service sector on Nigeria's economic growth from 1990 to 2022, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the research explores the contributions of these key sectors to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that the industrial sector has a significant positive effect on GDP, emphasizing its crucial role in driving economic growth. The agricultural sector also contributes positively, though its impact is relatively modest, highlighting the need for modernization and investment to enhance productivity. Surprisingly, the service sector shows a statistically significant negative impact on GDP, contrary to its traditionally recognized role in economic expansion. This anomaly suggests underlying structural issues within the sector that require further investigation. The study's model explains approximately 59.65% of the variation in GDP, with no significant evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or multicollinearity affecting the results. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen industrialization efforts, and reform the service sector to foster balanced and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.


 The recent economic recession in Nigeria was manifested shortly after the successful democratic-to-democratic transmission of political power in 2015, against the backdrop of continental and global economy rankings of the country as the largest in Africa, and 24th in the world as at 2014. Based on relevant variables of datasets from 1981 to 2016, this paper employed error correction mechanism on log-linear regression model to evaluate macroeconomic policies being implemented to stabilise and restorethe economy on the path of sustainable growth. The variables were surrogates of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and supply-side policies. The results showed that the respective macroeconomic policies had mixed effects, but jointly had significant growth-retarding effect on the country’s economy. Therefore, the paper concludes that macroeconomic policies had heterogeneous effects, and emphasised the need for appropriate mix of macroeconomic policies to be implemented to sustain and move theeconomy out of the recession trap.
 JEL Codes: C22, C52, E52, E62 and F31

The study examined the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The research design adopted for the study was ex-post-facto. The data used for the study were drawn from secondary sources. The sources of data were from World Bank statistical database and CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) for a period of between 1990 and 2019. Based on the research objectives and unit root test of the study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to determine the relationship between hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption variables and economic growth indicators in Nigeria and the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The Error Correction Model (ECM) of the study and after examining the long-run impact of the independent variables in the model of the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria. The result shows that the ECM parameters were negative (-) and significant which are given -0.546. This means that 55 percent disequilibrium in the previous period is being corrected to restore equilibrium in the current period in the respective models. The ARDL long-run results on the impact of hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria revealed that hydroelectric and Petroleum Electricity Consumption have positive and significant impact on real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the government should increase the hydroelectric and petroleum electricity consumption in Nigeria by reducing the unit price of the petroleum electricity consumption in Nigeria in other to increase the household and industrial usage for increase economic activities through the household and industrialisation in Nigeria through the firms and young industries in Nigeria which in turn increase the sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

This study investigates the long-run relationship between petroleum product prices and economic growth in Nigeria using robust econometric framework. The research confirms the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the selected variables from the result of Johansen cointegration tests. To examine the effects of petroleum product prices on economic growth, the study applies Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation technique. The results reveal that prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Dual-Purpose Kerosene (DPK) reveal positive and statistically significant influence on the Nigerian economic growth. The AGO demonstrates the highest impact with a coefficient of 0.0402, followed by DPK (0.0168) and PMS (0.00395). The model explains approximately 83.57% of the variation in economic growth which indicates strong explanatory power and robust relationship between fuel pricing and macroeconomic performance in the economy. The result of the diagnostic tests affirms the stability of the model parameters and the absence of serial correlation, hence, the reliability of the findings. However, the study recommends for effective investment in renewable energy, adopting transparent petroleum pricing policy, implementing efficient price stabilization strategies as well as strengthening institutional frameworks in order to reduce fossil fuel dependence for ensuring fair pricing system and promote sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

<p><em>Transport remains one of the major infrastructural facilities critical for sustainable economic growth and development of any nation including Nigeria. This paper examined public spending on transport infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to analyze the data collected. The data analyzed show that public spending on transport infrastructure is negatively related to growth and insignificant. The study recommended that government must ensure adequate funding of transport sector. And that fiscal responsibility laws be properly implemented to ensure greater accountability and prudence in the funds allocated to transport sector. This would go a long way to boost employment, sustainable economic growth and development in Nigeria.</em></p>