Fiscal impacts of electoral abstention: a study on the electorate biometric update in Brazilian municipalities

Abstract

ABSTRACT Because electoral abstention may generate a difference between the preferences of general voters, i.e., those who are eligible to vote, and the preferences of effective voters, i.e., those who do vote, policies adopted by incumbents may differ according to differences in turnout rates across the electorate. The Brazilian biometric electorate update offers an innovative opportunity to explore exogenous variations in abstention rates, allowing us to verify its impact on public policies, especially local public expenditures. By combining propensity score matching, differences-in-differences and instrumental variables models, we find that the electorate biometric update decreased abstention rates in local elections in Brazil, which, in turn, changed local public spending composition towards expenditures on education. The remaining categories of public expenditures explored in this study, however, seem not to be affected by the change in the electorate composition.