Fiscal and other risks over the long term

Abstract

After 13 years’ absence from any involvement in public life in New Zealand it has been a welcome challenge to re-immerse myself in issues with which I used to be familiar. I’d like to focus this article on why we should see the Treasury’s review of the government’s long-term fiscal outlook as an exercise in managing a wide range of risks under conditions of significant uncertainty; and how, from a political point of view, one might seek to stop the need for fiscal prudence sliding off the radar screen.