Abstract
We give an overview of the science application process at work in supporting fire management. First-order fire effects models, such as those discussed in accompanying papers, are the building blocks of software systems designed for application to landscapes over time scales from days to centuries. Fire effects may be modeled using empirical, rule based, or process approaches. Fire effects software systems can be used to conduct risk assessments, develop prescriptions for fuel treatments or prescribed fire, or support long-term planning. A brief review of the software systems available and the fire effects models on which they are based is presented. We consider the future of software systems for fire management and, given gaps in fire effects modeling capabilities, how to strengthen their foundation.
Highlights
Fire effects are the results of combustion
Modeling fire effects to provide information for land managers is difficult for three reasons: 1) the intrinsic variability of the natural systems being modeled is large; 2) the data needed for modeling with precision may not be available to decision-makers; and 3) the information needs of land managers are diverse and require predictions at a variety of temporal and spatial scales
For this kind of application, first-order fire effects models are useful in conjunction with, or as drivers of, second-order models of vegetation dynamics
Summary
Fire effects are the results of combustion. They include direct, or first-order effects on a wide variety of ecosystem components— plants, animals, dead biomass, soils, and air, as well as indirect, or second-order effects that take place over time and depend in large part on post-fire phenomena such as weather, landuse, seed availability, and insect and disease occurrence (Reinhardt et al 2001). Important first-order fire effects include plant injury and mortality, fuel consumption, smoke production, and soil heating. They occur at the time of the fire or within seconds or minutes afterward, and they are generally restricted to the location of the fire. Second-order effects, which are those that are often of most interest to land managers, include vegetation succession, fuel dynamics, erosion, air quality, and water quality. They may take place over days or years following a fire, and may occur offsite. Modeling fire effects to provide information for land managers is difficult for three reasons: 1) the intrinsic variability of the natural systems being modeled is large; 2) the data needed for modeling with precision may not be available to decision-makers; and 3) the information needs of land managers are diverse and require predictions at a variety of temporal and spatial scales
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