First steps in forecasting the health workforce in Kazakhstan: A baseline scenario

Berik Koichubekov,Bauyrzhan Omarkulov,Azamat Kharin,Ilya Korshukov,Marina Sorokina,Nazgul Omarbekova

doi:10.23950/jcmk/10980

Berik Koichubekov, Bauyrzhan Omarkulov + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.23950/jcmk/10980

Copy DOI

Abstract

Background: The purpose of this study was to consider the basic scenario for predicting the need for general practitioners in Kazakhstan until 2030. Material and methods: A basic health care human resource planning model consists of supply and demand components, analysis of the outcomes of the prediction, and planning future actions. Stock-flow consistent model was built by using current situation and projected Kazakhstan population, retirement rate, attrition rate and adding the estimated number of new graduates. Results: According to the proposed scenario, in some years of the forecast period, both an excess and a lack of a general practitioners offer are possible. The largest surplus, 226 doctors, is predicted in 2024. However, starting in 2027 their shortage is possible, with a peak of 339 general practitioners in 2030. Conclusion: Considered scenario leads to the fact that inflow does not cover the increasing needs of primary health care associated with population growth. In this case, our forecast is the basis for medical schools to adjust the number of general practitioners students in internship, seeking a balance of supply and demand.

Highlights

At present, the World Health Organization and many countries of the world pay great attention to the problems of health care workforce planning [1]
Current situation In Kazakhstan, the functioning model of primary health care inherited from the USSR the local principle of serving the population with the definition for each primary health care specialist of a clearly limited service area with a certain number of adults for the therapist and children for the pediatrician
The General Practitioners (GP) should become the main link in the primary health care system

Summary

Introduction

The World Health Organization and many countries of the world pay great attention to the problems of health care workforce planning [1]. The involvement of a wide range of stakeholders in the human resources planning process, especially in the discussion of the modeling itself, has an overall impact on human resources for health policy, as it increases the engagement of various stakeholders and encourages them to engage in dialogue This leads to the fact that health policy is not developed by a narrow circle of people, but takes into account the views of various interested sectors of society. Conclusion: Considered scenario leads to the fact that inflow does not cover the increasing needs of primary health care associated with population growth In this case, our forecast is the basis for medical schools to adjust the number of general practitioners students in internship, seeking a balance of supply and demand.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion