First passage time of nonlinear ship rolling in narrow band non-stationary random seas

Abstract

The generalized extended stochastic central difference (GESCD) method is applied to study the response statistics and first passage time of nonlinear ship rolling in narrow band stationary and non-stationary random seas. The GESCD method is based on a combination of the extended stochastic central difference method with a statistical linearization technique, modified adaptive time scheme, and time coordinate transformation. The extended stochastic central difference method is, however, an extension of the stochastic central difference method for the determination of the recursive mean square or covariance of responses of systems under narrow band stationary and non-stationary random disturbances. Approximate first passage probabilities of nonlinear systems based on the modified mean rate of various crossings proposed earlier by the first author were determined. It is concluded that the GESCD method is very accurate, simple and efficient to apply compared with Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is applicable to cases with large nonlinearities and intensive random excitations. The approximate first passage probabilities of the nonlinear system determined by the proposed approach are very accurate as they are in excellent agreement with those evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation. It is believed that the model considered in this paper is a closer representation to reality than those reported earlier in the literature.