First Opioid Prescription and Subsequent High-Risk Opioid Use: a National Study of Privately Insured and Medicare Advantage Adults.

Abstract

National guidelines make recommendations regarding the initial opioid prescriptions, but most of the supporting evidence is from the initial episode of care, not the first prescription. To examine associations between features of the first opioid prescription and high-risk opioid use in the 18months following the first prescription. Retrospective cohort study using data from a large commercial insurance claims database for 2011-2014 to identify individuals with no recent use of opioids and follow them for 18months after the first opioid prescription. Privately insured patients aged 18-64 and Medicare Advantage patients aged 65 or older who filled a first opioid prescription between 07/01/2011 and 06/30/2013. High-risk opioid use was measured by having (1) opioid prescriptions overlapping for 7days or more, (2) opioid and benzodiazepine prescriptions overlapping for 7days or more, (3) three or more prescribers of opioids, and (4) a daily dosage exceeding 120 morphine milligram equivalents, in each of the six quarters following the first prescription. All three features of the first prescription were strongly associated with high-risk use. For example, among privately insured patients, receiving a long- (vs. short-) acting first opioid was associated with a 16.9-percentage-point increase (95% CI, 14.3-19.5), a daily MME of 50 or more (vs. less than 30) was associated with a 12.5-percentage-point increase (95% CI, 12.1-12.9), and a supply exceeding 7days (vs. 3 or fewer days) was associated with a 4.8-percentage-point increase (95% CI, 4.5-5.2), in the probability of having a daily dosage of 120 MMEs or more in the long term, compared to a sample mean of 4.2%. Results for the Medicare Advantage patients were similar. Long-acting formulation, high daily dosage, and longer duration of the first opioid prescription were each associated with increased high-risk use of opioids in the long term.