First Movers, Democratization and Unilateral Concessions: Overcoming Commitment Problems and Negotiating a “Nationwide Cease-Fire” in Myanmar

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe article argues that “first movers” and the bandwagoning effect they trigger can undermine the dynamics that perpetuate civil war and enable a multiparty cease-fire agreement. It looks at the unprecedented “nationwide” cease-fire in Myanmar reached between the government and several ethnic armed organizations in 2015. It shows that democratization and unilateral concessions by the Myanmar government were instrumental in overcoming the commitment problem and provided the necessary incentives for “first movers” to set the stage for a broad cease-fire agreement.