First direct estimate of the detection probability of bovine tuberculosis in possums by possum transmission

Abstract

We conducted a field trial to determine whether percutaneous challenge of wild brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) with virulent Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), resulted in subsequent transmission of M. bovis to other possums. We then used our results to make a preliminary first direct estimate of the ‘TB detection probability’ or transmission rate in wild possums. Seven free-living adult possums in the Rimutaka Forest Park, New Zealand, were captured, GPS-collared, experimentally challenged and then released. Possum populations surrounding the challenged individuals were examined for secondary cases 4–8 months post-challenge. Of 37 possums caught within the home ranges of the challenged individuals, one had confirmed TB. As no TB was detected in 355 other possums examined in this study, or 659 possums in a concurrent study in the immediate vicinity, we conclude that this represents the first documented case of onward transmission of M. bovis from an experimentally challenged possum in the wild. This pilot trial therefore gives some confidence that the new percutaneous challenge model for TB in possums can be used to obtain empirical estimates of TB detection probabilities. The calculated probability of onward transmission (‘detection’) here was just 0.027; however, with the possibility that further transmission events would have occurred from the one challenged possum removed from the trial before it had died, or if our trapping missed secondary cases, this value could be an underestimate. The implications of this low preliminary estimate are discussed.