Abstract
We study the impact of rank-based decision-making in a multi-member plurality electoral system by examining the decisions of Philippine legislative councilors to run for and win higher office. By focusing on multi-member plurality elections, we identify the effect of rank amongst politicians that hold the same office and received a similar number of votes. To identify the causal effect of rank, we conduct a close-elections RD at the village, municipality, and province levels. Our main result is the first place effect: incumbent first placers are 5–9% (1–4%) more likely to run (win) in future elections than incumbent second placers. The first place effect is unique among rank effects: subsequent rank comparisons yield substantially weaker or insignificant results. Further evidence suggests that a variety of potential mechanisms—party alignment, strategic voting, differential levels of media exposure or the better performance of first placers—do not seem to explain our results. These results improve our understanding of the variety of ways rank effects interact with electoral systems.
Highlights
Recent scholarship in both economics and political science has established the prevalence of rank-based decision-making on a variety of political outcomes, including reelection, the propensity to contest elections, political appointments and government formation (Anagol and Fujiwara, 2016; Fujiwara and Sanz, 2020)
Perhaps the most established empirical relationship in this field is the effect of electoral rank—based on a candidate’s relative number of votes in a given election—on political promotion, for example how rank determines who is promoted within a political party or who runs for higher office in future elections
This paper examines the effect of rank on political promotion in multi-member plurality electoral systems
Summary
Recent scholarship in both economics and political science has established the prevalence of rank-based decision-making on a variety of political outcomes, including reelection, the propensity to contest elections, political appointments and government formation (Anagol and Fujiwara, 2016; Fujiwara and Sanz, 2020). Our results provide evidence for a novel empirical association between rank and political promotion in multi-member plurality systems We call this the first place effect: the effect of ranking first (versus second) on the probability of running for and winning higher office (our measure of political promotion). First place village councilors are more likely to run for village chair, first place municipal councilors are more likely to run for vice mayor, and first place provincial councilors are more likely to run for vice governor These findings suggest that rank has a significant impact on future electoral success, increasing the probability of first placers running for and winning higher office by at least 30% more than that of the second placer. Multimember plurality elections allow us to examine rank effects in a context where both candidates win and have similar formal political power while their ranks may differ. These results are the first step towards a deeper understanding of the impacts of rankbased decision-making
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