Firm beliefs and long-run demand effects in a labor-constrained model of growth and distribution

Abstract

One of the most debated questions in alternative macroeconomics regards whether demand policies have permanent or merely transitory effects. While demand matters in the long run in (neo-) Kaleckian economics, both economists operating within other Keynesian traditions (e.g. Skott 1989) as well as Classical economists Dumenil and Levy (Manchester School 67(6):684–716, 1999) argue that in the long-run output growth is constrained by an exogenous natural growth rate. This paper attempts to bridge the gap by analyzing the role of firm beliefs about the state of the economy in a labor-constrained growth and distribution model based on Kaldor (Review of Economic Studies 23(2):83–100, 1956) and Goodwin (Journal of Evolutionary Economics 1(1):29–47, 1991) that is also compatible with the evolutionary perspective on coordination (or the lack thereof) within markets by Metcalfe et al. (Cambridge Journal of Economics 30:7–32, 2006). The main innovation is the inclusion of beliefs about economic activity in an explicitly dynamic choice of capacity utilization at the firm level. We show that: (i) the relevance of such beliefs generates an inefficiently low utilization rate and labor share in equilibrium, but (ii) the efficient utilization rate can be implemented through fiscal policy. Under exogenous technical change, (iii) the inefficiency does not affect the equilibrium employment rate and growth rate, but expansionary fiscal policy has positive level effects on both GDP and the labor share. However, (iv) with endogenous technical change a la Verdoorn (1949), fiscal policy has also temporary growth effects. Finally, (v) the fact that the choice of utilization responds to income shares has a stabilizing effect on growth cycles, even under exogenous technical change, that is analogous to factor substitution.