Fire-induced changes in net value of timber: a sensitivity analysis

Abstract

The change in timber's present net value as a result of wildfire was estimated for 108 hypothetical fire situations in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The net value changes, estimated by simulating timber yield changes on the fire site only, ranged from a loss of $964 to a gain of $1696 per acre ($2382 to $4191/ha) burned. The magnitude and sign of the net value changes were related to the fire size, fire severity, and timber management characteristics of the fire situation. The substantial impact of these separate fire situation characteristics suggests that efficient fire program management must consider the variability of the timber resource in detail. Net value change averages for large, heterogeneous areas would disguise considerable variation. The need for accurate timber net value change estimates can be filled by careful precalculation for standardized, situation-specific fire cases, thereby avoiding the computational inefficiencies of duplicative site-specific calculations.