Abstract
SUMMARYA system for the assessment of potential for fireblight Erwinia amylovora activity (PFA), based on standard temperature and rainfall records, has previously been outlined. Here some recent modifications are described and the system is discussed more fully and tested for its ability to explain outbreaks of fireblight in different hosts in Kent, south‐east England for the years 1955–76.In most cases, there was a satisfactory match between PFA patterns and recorded field outbreaks and incidents and it is concluded that warnings based on the system could have lessened risk of disease in some hosts in past years. In the short term (depending on the accuracy of weather forecasts) the system can be used predictively. Its use in this way is discussed together with underlying principles of some of the criteria used and possible ways in which the precision of the system might be improved.
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