Fire Weather Conditions in Boreal and Polar Regions in 2002–2021

Abstract

Fire activity in 288 areas (2.5° N × 10° E) in the Arctic region (50°–70° N, 0°–360° E) was analyzed using about 4.4 million satellite hotspot (HS) data from 2002 to 2021. A total of 21 high fire density areas from eastern Europe to western Canada were selected, and their fire–weather conditions during each active fire period were analyzed using about 1820 various weather maps at the upper and the lower air level. Analysis results showed that the active fires in the Arctic region occurred under the fire–weather conditions associated with the northward movement of cut-off high (COH) and warm air masses detached from the south caused by large westerly meandering (LWM). LWM is a sign of the beginning of an active fire period. Very active fires on HS peak days occurred several days after the start of the northward movement of COHs and under mainly high-pressure conditions in the upper air and strong wind conditions in the lower air. The time lag of these several days suggests that we may be prepared for very active fires. The fire–weather analysis approach described in this paper has shown that future large-scale fire outbreaks are predictable.