Fire safety management and risk assessment

Abstract

The paper discusses the problems encountered in the management and quantitative evaluation of fire risk and safety in a building. Rational methods for obtaining solutions to these problems are provided by non‐deterministic mathematical models rather than deterministic models. This is due to the fact that the occurrence and spread of an accidental (not arson) fire are random phenomena affected by uncertainties caused by several factors. Non‐deterministic models discussed briefly in the paper include simple statistical and probabilistic models, regression methods, probability distributions, fault and event trees and stochastic models. The paper only provides a framework for applying these models to any type of facility. For any type, it may be necessary to modify these techniques, collect all the relevant data and perform the analyses to derive results and conclusions applicable to that type.