Fire evacuation modelling of a Canadian wildland urban interface community

Abstract

Wildland urban interface (WUI) communities are situated at the interface between human development and wildland fuel. In addition to their proximity to susceptible regions, routes of evacuation in WUIs are often limited, posing great risks to these communities in the event of a natural disaster. Considering the abundance of WUI interfaces in Canada, Canadian-based research is vital for developing national wildfire regulations. However, the limited amount of Canadian research forces authorities to seek wildfire evacuation techniques from foreign sources, which may not be proven to be effective in northern boreal forests. To begin the research herein, a Canadian WUI community in central Canada was selected as a case study to investigate assembly and evacuation patterns during a fire evacuation to illustrate the complexity of the situation and the current research needs required. First-stage simulations of evacuations were performed in the traffic simulation software PTV VISSIM, which extracted useful data, including evacuation times and related parameters. The results demonstrated that the addition of an extra highway access road reduces evacuation times by up to an hour and 20 minutes, which can determine whether a resident evacuates or not. However, the predictive power of the software is limited by its ability to incorporate the effects of human behaviour and the fire behaviour itself. Thus, extending these findings to include the need for evacuee behaviour and fire dynamics is a crucial second stage in the formation of a more complete strategic evacuation plan for communities at risk of wildfires. This study is vital for creating a Canadian-based approach to WUI wildfire evacuations and to expand the knowledge base in the field.