Abstract
This paper considers automated fire behavior prediction in larch forests of the Kazakhstan Altai based on large-scale vegetation fuel maps (VF maps). First-time pyrological description of the Kazakhstan Altai larch forests was performed, thus facilitating VF maps’ creation using forest inventory information in a geographical information system (GIS). Based on the methodological developments of the Sukachev Institute of Forest, types of primary fire carriers were identified for larch forests and other categories of sites. On the example of the Markakol Forestry area (Kazakhstan Altai), our fire growth simulation modeling system was adapted for predicting fire behavior in the mountain terrain. The developed fire simulation software helped not only identify inventory plots ready to burn, but also assess spread rate for fire parts dependent upon weather conditions, predict fire intensity and fire development, and calculate the required manpower and resources for fire suppression. The effects of each specific fire were predicted in terms of percentage of tree mortality dependent upon fire intensity, tree species, and average tree diameter. Examples of VF maps were made for different periods of a fire season and analysis was given to behavior of a simulated surface fire in the Markakol Forestry area.
Highlights
One PFC type transforms into another, namely, cured grass (Cg) in spring turns into loose litter (Ll) in summer, and back to cured grass (Cg) in fall
If grass cover composition is dominated by gramineous plants (e.g., Calamagrostis spp., Poa spp., Festuca spp.) and sedge (Carex spp.), PFC type is cured grass (Cg) in spring and fall, and may transform into loose litter (Ll), compact litter (Cl), or even non-conductor (Nc) in summer, since, when the load of growing green grass exceeds the load of dead vegetation residues, an almost non-flammable mixture is formed, which is conventionally called as Nc1 subtype (Table 1)
Types, the state of which depends on weather conditions and determines possibility for flame combustion to spread over the area
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Vegetation fires (including forest, steppe, bush, swamp fires) have long been an unsolved global problem for humanity. Great damage is caused by forest fire outbreaks during severe droughts. People have not learned to accurately forecast such extreme weather events yet. There is a need to predict behavior of vegetation fires since it is unrealistic to maintain sufficient resources and manpower in each region to suppress all emerging fires. Increasing technical power will not solve the problem, as evidenced by experience of such developed countries as the USA and Canada, where large efforts have been addressed to develop fire behavior prediction systems along with fire hazard assessment
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