Abstract
Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes. Therefore, an understanding of fine-scale mosquito population dynamics is critical to understanding spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and persistence at those scales. However, mathematical models of dengue and malaria transmission, which consider the dynamics of mosquito larvae, generally do not account for the fragmented structure of larval breeding sites. Here, we develop a stochastic metapopulation model of mosquito population dynamics and explore the impact of accounting for breeding site fragmentation when modelling fine-scale mosquito population dynamics. We find that, when mosquito population densities are low, fragmentation can lead to a reduction in population size, with population persistence dependent on mosquito dispersal and features of the underlying landscape. We conclude that using non-spatial models to represent fine-scale mosquito population dynamics may substantially underestimate the stochastic volatility of those populations.
Highlights
Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes
Mathematical models of dengue and malaria, which consider larval population dynamics, largely treat larval populations as a well-mixed population coming from a single breeding site, and do not account for the fragmented structure of larval populations
By adopting a metapopulation approach to model the dynamics of mosquito populations, we examined the impact of larval habitat fragmentation and the role of the spatial structure in shaping mosquito population dynamics at fine spatial scales
Summary
Fine-scale geographic variation in the transmission intensity of mosquito-borne diseases is primarily caused by variation in the density of female adult mosquitoes. Larval populations are constrained and it is generally assumed that such regulation is dominated by densitydependent intraspecific competition, whereby larvae in a single breeding site compete for food and other resources[15,16,17,18,19] This has the primary effect of increasing larval mortality, it may lead to longer development times and a reduction in the size of adult mosquitoes[15,16,18,20,21]. Empirical evidence suggests that abundance of Anopheles mosquitoes is spatially heterogeneous at fine spatial scales, owing to the availability and productivity of larval habitats, and proximity to human settlements[23,36,37,38]
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