Fine-scale forest biological hazard in China show significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity

Abstract

To date, there is a lack of fine-scale forest biological hazard risk (FBHR) data for Chinese forests on a national scale. This study explored the spatial and temporal patterns of the FBHR in prefecture-level cities in China. Data on the forest biological hazard (FBH) damage area and forest cover area of each prefecture-level city in China from 2007 to 2019 were used. Based on the statistical analysis characteristics of the FBH rate of each prefecture-level city in recent years, the spatial pattern of the FBHR of prefecture-level cities in China was obtained by optimal fitting. The results of the study show that the overall average annual occurrence of FBHs in China from 2007 to 2019 was 11,420 thousand hectares. Although the incidence rate showed a decreasing trend, the occurrence area showed a decreasing and then increasing trend. The incidence of FBHs in each prefecture-level city in China showed a pattern of “heavy in the north and light in the south”; the overall incidence of FBHs showed a pattern of “high in the central part and low in the north and south”. The FBHR at the prefecture level in China showed a circular scattering spatial pattern, and significant geographical differences were observed, with an average annual expected incidence of approximately 1.3‰. Among them, the highest FBHR at the prefecture level, was mainly concentrated along the Henan, Anhui and Shandong borders. A high FBHR was distributed in the Jiangsu, Xinjiang, and Ningxia-Neimenggu areas. A medium FBHR was distributed in the North China Plain, Liaoning and Sichuan. A low FBHR was distributed in Central China, North China, Xinjiang and Liaoning. An extremely low FBHR was concentrated in Heilongjiang-Jilin-Qinghai-Gansu, southern East China, Southwest China and South China. The results of this study reveal the FBHR patterns on a refined scale in China and provide a reference for managing, preventing, and controlling the FBH.