Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China

Abstract

In the assessment of storm surge vulnerability, existing studies have often selected several types of disaster-bearing bodies and assessed their exposure. In reality, however, storm surges impact all types of disaster-bearing bodies in coastal and estuarine areas. Therefore, all types of disaster-bearing bodies exposed to storm surges should be considered when assessing exposure. In addition, geographical factors will also have an impact on the exposure of the affected bodies, and thus need to be fully considered. Hence, we propose a fine-scale coastal storm surge disaster vulnerability and risk assessment model. First, fine-scale land-use data were obtained based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Combined with natural geographic factors, such as the digital elevation model (DEM), slope, and distance to water, the exposure of the disaster-bearing bodies in each geographic unit of the coastal zone was comprehensively determined. A total of five indicators, such as the percentage of females and ratio of fishery products to the gross domestic product (GDP), were then selected to assess sensitivity. In addition, six indicators, including GDP and general public budget expenditure, were selected to assess adaptability. Utilizing the indicators constructed from exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, a vulnerability assessment was performed in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay, China, which is at high risk from storm surges. Furthermore, the storm surge risk assessment was achieved in combination with storm water statistics. The results revealed that the Kenli District, Changyi City, and the Hanting District have a higher risk of storm surge and require more attention during storm surges. The storm surge vulnerability and risk assessment model proposed in this experiment fully considers the impact of the natural environment on the exposure indicators of the coastal zone’s disaster-bearing bodies, and combines sensitivity, adaptability indicators, and storm water record data to conduct vulnerability and risk assessment. At the same time, the model proposed in this study can also realize multi-scale assessment of storm surge vulnerability and risk based on different scales of socioeconomic statistical data, which has the advantages of flexibility and ease of operation.