Abstract
Migration of natural reservoir fines mobilised by water production may cause significant well productivity decline. The aim of this work is long-term productivity forecast from the production history under fines migration. We derive an exact solution of the radial inflow problem for suspension with size-distributed particles. The exact solution allows for detailed analysis of the structure of the flow domain and for an implicit formulae for well impedance. Six model coefficients are determined from the history of well production and fines concentration in the produced fluid. 23 field cases have been matched by the analytical model. Close agreement between the field and modelling data and common variation intervals for the tuned model parameters validate the model proposed. The analytical model allows determining the size of the damaged zone during water production under fines migration, which is important for well stimulation planning and design.
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