Fine-scale Weather Patterns Drive Reproductive Success in the Brown Pelican

Abstract

In the northern Gulf of Mexico, island restoration and creation have been used to mitigate potential negative effects of anthropogenic and environmental stressors to breeding seabirds. The long-term success of such projects can be enhanced when data are available to elucidate how site-specific and larger-scale factors may contribute to reproductive success. Nest-specific daily survival rate (DSR) of Eastern Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis) during incubation (i.e., pre-hatch; n = 245) and brood-rearing (i.e., post-hatch; n = 185) were measured at two breeding islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico USA in 2017 and 2018 in relation to macro- and micro- scale habitat and environmental measurements. DSR of nests during incubation ranged from 91-99%, and the DSR during brood-rearing exceeded 99% each year. Regional weather variables occurred in top-performing models more often and with more significance compared to microhabitat variables. Results suggest that reproductive success of Brown Pelicans may respond at least in part to weather factors that occur outside of the scope of habitat structure as it is typically incorporated into the restoration or creation of breeding habitat, indicating that climate conditions are likely an important factor in the success of restoration efforts.