Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

Martin Mokroš,Martin Lukac,Laura Dobor,Katarína Merganičová,Tomáš Hlásny

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96717-6

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23–31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Highlights

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability
Focusing on areas with predicted stable climate, relative to background climate change, is increasingly recognised as a viable conservation strategy[19,20,21]. These climatic refugia may arice at multiple spatial scales, from small-scale poleward-facing slopes, sites affected by cold groundwater or deep snow drifts[22], to the continental-scale refugia such as the Boreal zone in Europe[6]
Descriptions of species migration and persistence in climatic refugia during glacial and interglacial periods may be applicable to present-day conservation effort[19], if future climate can be resolved at an appropriate scale

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We investigate how future climate change may affect present-day nature conservation initiatives in Europe, by considering spatial coverage and temporal persistence of regions with significantly lower or higher climatic stability. This information may be vital for the transition from the current static conservation framework to climate-adapted conservation strategies deemed necessary to avoid the imminent biodiversity b reakdown[24]. Representing the diversity of spatial scales at which atmospheric and biological processes operate[25], we (i) evaluate the patterns of projected climatic stability in Europe at two scales; (ii) indicate some of the existing biodiversity conservation sites exposed to future high or low risk of climatic stability, and (iii) discuss how the identification of such sites can inform the formation of a climate-adapted biodiversity conservation strategy for Europe

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