Fine-Grained Service-Level Passenger Flow Prediction for Bus Transit Systems Based on Multitask Deep Learning

Abstract

Bus services play a crucial role in urban transit. It is significant to achieve the fine-grained service-level passenger flow prediction (SPFP), namely to predict the total number of passengers for each service of each bus line passing through each station during the next short-term interval. However, it faces great challenges due to complex factors including inter-station and inter-line spatial dependencies, intra-station and inter-service temporal dependencies, and internal/external influences. To address these challenges, we propose a multitask deep-learning (MDL) approach, called <i>MDL-SPFP</i>, to jointly predict the arriving bus service flow, line-level on-board passenger flow and line-level boarding/alighting passenger flow by leveraging well-designed deep neural networks called <i>ARM</i>. The MDL framework can mutually reinforce the prediction of each type of flow, and finally integrate the outputs to achieve the fine-grained service-level prediction. The ARM network combines three modules, Attention mechanism, Residual block and Multi-scale convolution, to well capture various complex non-linear spatio-temporal dependencies and influence factors. Extensive experiments based on a large-scale realistic bus operation dataset are conducted to confirm that our MDL-SPFP approach outperforms 10 state-of-the-art baselines, and improves 22.39&#x0025; accuracy than the best baseline.