Finding the Balance Between Simplicity and Realism in Participatory Modeling for Environmental Planning

Abstract

Complex systems simulations can support collaborative water planning by allowing stakeholders to jointly see hidden effects of land- and water-use decisions on groundwater flow. We adopted a participatory modeling progression where stakeholders learned to modify and use increasingly sophisticated models to assess policy impacts on groundwater levels. Stakeholders' shared understanding of the problem and the novelty, concreteness, and richness of proposed solutions evolved alongside the models’ degree of realism, but up to a certain point. More realistic models became a distraction and stymied efforts to plan for water shortages. The reflective learning required to plan for complex environmental problems is best supported by models that strike a balance between representational fidelity and end-user intelligibility. Complicated models and high-resolution data may overwhelm model users, preventing them from acting on the useful planning insights they derived from the exploratory modeling, particularly within social contexts that exhibit strong power dynamics and favor prediction.