Abstract
The development of logistics infrastructure in Serbia is the key to achieving regional competitiveness and economic prosperity of the state. Intermodal terminals have great significance in logistics networks and their development enables the implementation of intermodal transport technologies as well as participation in international goods flows. Belgrade, the national and regional economic centre and an important traffic node, attracts significant intermodal, container flows. For this reason, it represents a location for the development of an intermodal terminal that would play an important role in the logistics network of Serbia and the region as well. This paper analyses the financial justification of the development of an intermodal terminal in Belgrade, based upon four parameters - net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (B/C) and investment return period (RP). Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the observed parameters regarding the change of input parameter values (the volume of intermodal, container flows and the service price levels) is conducted. Two project funding scenarios are defined according to the involvement of the private sector in overall investments. The result analysis indicates that in both of the scenarios, the development of an intermodal terminal in Belgrade would be financially justified. The sensitivity analysis has shown that the financial justification of the development of the observed intermodal terminal is more sensitive to the change in container flow volumes in comparison with the change in terminal service price levels.
Highlights
The economic activity greatly depends on the logistics systems and processes that occur along supply chains
The profit of an intermodal terminal is closely bound to the intermodal, container flow volumes that pass through the terminal
Caused by a large number of factors that affect container flows and the dynamic/stochastic changes in the surrounding, the realization of any logistics project must be accompanied with appropriate sensitivity analyses to the changes in the system/surrounding
Summary
The economic activity greatly depends on the logistics systems and processes that occur along supply chains. Logistics has been identified as a key activity that supports the economic development of a country. In the countries of the European Union (EU), the growth rate of logistics is greater than the average economic growth rate [1]. Globalization, growth in world trade volumes, demographic changes, the growth of living standards and the individualization of customer demands have caused the need for designing and managing efficient logistics systems and networks [2]. Obal trend is to reduce the participation of road transport in the overall transport, and to redistribute the transport labour through greater involvement of ecofriendly transport modes – such as rail and inland waterway transport. It can be stated that intermodal transport is the development direction of global, European and regional logistics networks
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