Abstract
The energy performance contracting market is potentially substantial but very little work has been undertaken to understand the characteristics of successful projects. This study uses a probabilistic analysis of four hypothetical projects in the UK schools sector under the 2014 policy regime, combined with qualitative interviews with practitioners, to explore the conditions for a viable project. It finds that the proposed approach has the potential to allow more detailed exploration of project structures and scope for creating greater understanding of likely returns and the factors affecting them. Evidence is found that the use of deterministic risk screening techniques such as simple payback results in viable opportunities being overlooked. The risk profiles for clients and contractors (energy service companies – ESCOs) are not symmetrical and they will each find different projects more attractive. The results suggest that greater consideration needs to be given to the precise risk allocation between client and contractor to ensure that likely returns are properly understood. This study demonstrates a method for exploring project characteristics that can be used to understand their impacts on the financial returns for clients and contractors.
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