Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area

Abstract

This paper examines financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area. To better understand the linkages between financial stress in the two regions, we construct a financial stress index for the U.S. similar to the Composite Indicators of Systemic Stress (CISS) that has been developed for the Euro Area with a focus on systemic risk. Using weekly data from 2000 to 2021 and Granger predictability in distribution test, we analyze stress transmission in “normal” times as well as under unusually high and low stress episodes. While we document unilateral transmission from the U.S. to the Euro Area under normal conditions based on the center of the distribution, tail dependence tests and impulse response analysis show significant bilateral transmission, particularly in unusually high financial stress episodes. This holds true for aggregate indices as well as the subindicators of financial stress in various financial markets. As such, there must be global efforts to contain financial crises and ensure a strong and resilient financial system.