Financial opportunity costs and deaths among close kin are independently associated with reproductive timing in a contemporary high-income society

Abstract

Evolutionary demography predicts that variation in reproductive timing stems from socio-ecologically contingent trade-offs between current and future reproduction. In contemporary high-income societies, the costs and benefits of current reproduction are likely to vary by socioeconomic status (SES). Two influential hypotheses, focusing on the parenthood 'wage penalty', and responses to local mortality have separately been proposed to influence the timing of parenthood. Economic costs of reproduction (i.e. income loss) are hypothesized to delay fertility, especially among high childhood SES individuals who experience greater opportunities to build capital through advantageous education and career opportunities. On the other hand, relatively low childhood SES individuals experience higher mortality risk, which may favour earlier reproduction. Here, we examine both hypotheses with a representative register-based, multigenerational dataset from contemporary Finland (N = 47 678). Consistent with each hypothesis, the predicted financial cost of early parenthood was smaller, and mortality among close kin was higher for individuals with lower childhood SES. Within the same dataset, lower predicted adulthood income and more kin deaths were also independently associated with earlier parenthood. Our results provide a robust demonstration of how economic costs and mortality relate to reproductive timing. We discuss the implications of our findings for demographic theory and public policy.