Financial markets diffusion patterns. The case of Mexican investment funds

Abstract

Research background: Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most influential financial innovations, reshaping the investment funds market in many countries, including Mexico. Due to their similar investment objectives, ETFs are considered substitutes for mutual funds.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to provide an indepth insight into the issues associated with the development of financial markets in Mexico over the period 2002-2012, putting special emphasis on the development patterns of ETFs.Methods: First we use descriptive statistics to unveil basic changes and trends in the Mexican investment funds (ETFs and mutual funds). Then we use a category of the innovation diffusion models, i.e. logistic growth models, in order to explore the key development patterns. Data sources and methodological framework are presented in the second section of the article, with a detailed description of the innovation diffusion models applied in the research (based on 3-parametric logistic curve). The sum of assets under management of ETFs and mutual funds is considered as the size of the total investment funds market.Findings and Value added: Empirical findings indicate a significant development of the ETF market, both in terms of assets under management and market share. According to the presented estimations, Mexican ETF market development can be described with the logistic growth models, and three characteristic phases of the logistic curve were clearly observable. The predicted ETF market development patterns point towards a further increase of the market share of ETFs over the next 3-5 years, yet the probability of exceeding the level of ca. 20-30% seems low.