Financial Liberalization, Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Performance in BRICs Countries

Abstract

In October 2003, a Goldman Sachs report (Purushothaman and Wilson, 2003), using the demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity growth, mapped out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements of the BRICs countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) until 2050. Based on some assumptions, the report forecast that in less than 40 years the BRICs countries together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms and by 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6 (currently they are worth less than 15 per cent). However, as the report recognizes, there is no guarantee that the economic growth of these countries will reach what is forecast by the study, as such behaviour depends on a set of factors, which includes macro stability (understood as price stability), development of good institutions (legal system, functioning markets, educational systems, financial institutions, etc.), openness to trade and FDI, and improvement in education level of the population — all known development policies supported by multilateral institutions, such as the World Bank.KeywordsExchange RateForeign Direct InvestmentReal Exchange RateCapital FlowExchange Rate RegimeThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.