Financial Liberalization and Business Cycles: the Experience of the New EU Member States

Abstract

Financial and capital liberalization can play a fundamental role in increasing growth and welfare. Typically, emerging or developing economies seek foreign savings to solve the inter-temporal savings-investment problem. On the other hand, current account surplus countries seek opportunities to invest their savings. To the extent that capital flows from surplus to deficit countries are well intermediated and put to the most productive use, they increase welfare. Liberalization can, however, also be risky, as has been witnessed in many past and recent financial, currency and banking crises. It can make countries more vulnerable to exogenous shocks. In particular, if serious macroeconomic imbalances exist in a recipient country, and if the financial sector is weak, be it in terms of risk management, prudential regulation and supervision, large capital flows can easily lead to serious financial, banking or currency crises. A number of recent crises, like those in East Asia, Mexico, Russia, Brazil and Turkey (described, for example, in International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2001), and, to some extent, the Argentinean Crisis of late 2001, early 2002, have demonstrated the potential risks associated with financial and capital flows liberalization (Prasad et al., 2003).