Financial Instrument Forecast with Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

In ancient times, trade was carried out by barter. With the use of money and similar means, the concept of financial instruments emerged. Financial instruments are tools and documents used in the economy. Financial instruments can be foreign exchange rates, securities, crypto currency, index and funds. There are many methods used in financial instrument forecast. These methods include technical analysis methods, basic analysis methods, forecasts carried out using variables and formulas, time-series algorithms and artificial intelligence algorithms. Within the scope of this study, the importance of the use of artificial intelligence algorithms in the financial instrument forecast is studied. Since financial instruments are used as a means of investment and trade by all sections of the society, namely individuals, families, institutions, and states, it is highly important to know about their future. Financial instrument forecast can bring about profitability such as increased income welfare, more economical adjustment of maturities, creation of large finances, minimization of risks, spreading of ownership to the grassroots, and more balanced income distribution. Within the scope of this study, financial instrument forecast is carried out by applying a new methods of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) algorithms and Ensemble Classification Boosting Method. Financial instrument forecast is carried out by creating a network compromising LSTM and RNN algorithm, an LSTM layer, and an RNN output layer. With the ensemble classification boosting method, a new method that gives a more successful result compared to the other algorithm forecast results was applied. At the conclusion of the study, alternative algorithm forecast results were competed against each other and the algorithm that gave the most successful forecast was suggested. The success rate of the forecast results was increased by comparing the results with different time intervals and training data sets. Furthermore, a new method was developed using the ensemble classification boosting method, and this method yielded a more successful result than the most successful algorithm result.