Financial instability and the short-term dynamics of volatility expectations

Abstract

This study provides new evidence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations during financial crises using Markov regime-switching models of model-free volatility indices. The regimes of changes in implied volatility in international financial markets are defined as function of market sentiment and a realignment process following forecast errors consistent with rational expectations. The results indicate that market returns and changes in forecast errors have indeed the potential of influencing the formation of volatility expectations. But the main force driving the dynamics of volatility expectations during periods of financial instability lies rather in the correlation with returns, reflecting market sentiment. The insignificance of the realignment process may be reflective of consensus beliefs that past information does not provide useful guidance during financial crises. It is forward-looking macroeconomic information and contemporaneous price movements that are more likely to shape the dynamics of volatility expectations.