Financial Fragility and Its Impacts on International Trade and Economic Growth

Abstract

International trade cannot be considered separate from the current financial system in the context of imports and exports. In this context, the impact on international trade should be analyzed under the financial fragility hypothesis. This chapter aims to analyze the effects of financial fragility on Fragile Five and Troubled Ten countries' economic growth and trade strategies. In this direction, long-term relationships between variables are analyzed by Westerlund panel cointegration tests. According to the result of the panel cointegration tests, there are long-term relationships between exports, imports, gross domestic product, and financial fragility index. After determining the long-term relationships between variables, causality analyses have been carried out to reveal the direction of these relationships. According to Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test results, there are bidirectional causality relationships between financial fragility index and export, import, and gross domestic product.