Financial Credit Default Forecast Based on Big Data Analysis

Abstract

How to effectively evaluate and identify the potential default risk of borrowers and calculate the default probability of borrowers before issuing loans is the basis and important link of the credit risk management of modern financial institutions. This paper mainly studies the statistical analysis of historical loan data of banks and other financial institutions with the help of the idea of non-balanced data classification, and uses machine learning algorithms (not statistical algorithms) such as random forest, logical regression and decision tree to establish loan default prediction model. The experimental results show that neural network and random forest algorithm outperform decision tree and logistic regression classification algorithm in prediction performance. In addition, by using the random forest algorithm to rank the importance of features, the features that have a greater impact on the final default can be obtained, so as to make a more effective judgment on the loan risk in the financial field.