Financial contagion of the Thai hospitality industry during the global energy crisis

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses the financial contagion of the hospitality industry on the case of Thailand. Objectives. The study aims at fixing the financial contagion from the oil and gas markets of shares of Thai hotel companies to assess the impact of the energy crisis of 2021–2022 on the hospitality sector. Methods. We employ general scientific research methods. Results. The Thai energy market analysis demonstrated significant dependence on fossil fuels, which occupy more than half of the total volume in the structure of energy generation. The paper highlights a technique of fixing the financial contagion in relation to the stock market of hospitality enterprises, provides data sampling on quotations of shares of Thai tourism enterprises, data on oil and gas futures prices. Further, the initial data were converted into a series of logarithmic returns. At the next stage, we performed a graphical analysis of the dynamics of volatility in the profitability of prices of futures contracts for oil and gas. Based on the series of logarithmic returns of pairs of "transmitter–receiver" variables, we constructed a DCC-GARCH model. We recorded financial contagion from the oil and gas markets and identified the causes of this process, i.e. the dependence of the tourism industry and hospitality enterprises on energy supplies, political situation in the region, sensitivity of the industry to economic crises. Also we note the instability of energy futures quotations during the crisis, which has a direct impact on the cost of tourist trips. Conclusions. The study of the mechanisms of transmission of financial contagion is an important area of anti-crisis planning of government measures to minimize the risks of economic losses.