Financial Contagion in Network Economies and Asset Prices

Abstract

This paper studies intertemporal asset pricing in network economies when distress shocks can propagate through the network, similarly to epidemic outbreaks. Two classes of equilibria exist. In the first, idiosyncratic shocks are diversifiable and do not affect valuations; the consumption capital asset pricing model applies. In the second, idiosyncratic shocks generate nondiversifiable long-run cascades of shocks (financial pandemics) that introduce a new risk premium component unexplained by traditional systematic factors. We derive closed solutions for asset prices as a function of the network properties and discuss their properties. After a structural break (1984), we find evidence of a network risk premium that is statistically and economically significant. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Funding: This work was supported by Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca [Grant PRIN-2017TA7TYC] and Baffi CAREFIN. C. Tebaldi is a fellow of Baffi CAREFIN and Innocenzo Gasaprini Institute for Economic Research Centers. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4687 .