Abstract

A compound Poisson process is considered. We estimate the current position of the stochastic process based on past discrete-time observations (non-linear discrete filtering problem) in Bayesian setting. We obtain bounds for the asymptotic rate of the expected square error of the filter when observations become frequent. The bounds depend linearly on jump intensity. Also, estimation of process' parameters is addressed.

Highlights

  • Filtering of stochastic processes has attracted a lot of attention

  • One of the examples is target tracking, when a target is observed over a discrete time grid, corresponding to the successive passes of a radar

  • We deal with discrete observations

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Summary

Introduction

Filtering of stochastic processes has attracted a lot of attention. One of the examples is target tracking, when a target is observed over a discrete time grid, corresponding to the successive passes of a radar. B) A generalization to d-dimensional signal and observations is immediate when the density φ of the error distribution takes a special form: φ(x1, ..., xd) =. In this case, the optimal filter can be computed coordinate-wise. A special case of a piecewise-linear process with uniform observational errors was considered in [12], but their suggested asymptotics of O(n−2) appear to be incorrect. One of the questions is how much improvement does the (optimal) non-linear filter bring compared to (linear) Kalman filter Another is how does the error distribution affect this improvement. To clarify the role of the error distribution, consider a special case well-known in statistics: when the signal is constant over time.

Recursive formulation
Multiple-block upper bound for expected square error
Proofs of inequalities used in Theorem 2
Lower bound for expected square error
Comparison to Kalman filter
Parameter estimation for the jump process
Errors in jump detection
Asymptotic behavior of parameter estimates
Simulations
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