Fighting Fire with Fire? Inequality, Populism and Voter Turnout

Hanna Schwander,Dominic Gohla,Armin Schäfer

doi:10.1007/s11615-020-00247-1

Hanna Schwander, Dominic Gohla + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-020-00247-1

Copy DOI

Abstract

In this article, we ask whether the presence of populist parties influences the negative effect of income inequality on voter turnout. A number of studies have shown that voter turnout is lower in unequal countries. In particular, citizens with fewer resources abstain at higher rates. Since populist parties seek to mobilize these groups, their success could lead to higher and less unequal turnout rates. To assess empirically whether this holds true, we analyzed a dataset encompassing data on 296 national parliamentary elections in 31 European countries between 1970 and 2016. The results show that there is neither a direct nor an indirect effect of populism on voter turnout. In elections with more successful populist parties, voter turnout was not significantly higher than in other elections. Higher vote shares of populist parties also do not mitigate the negative impact of income inequality on voter turnout. Finally, there does not seem to be a difference between elections with high left-wing or right-wing populist parties’ success. Neither variant of populism alters the relationship between inequality and turnout.

Highlights

We live in times of societal turmoil and worrisome political developments
In this article, we ask whether the presence of populist parties influences the negative effect of income inequality on voter turnout
Higher vote shares of populist parties do not mitigate the negative impact of income inequality on voter turnout

Summary

Introduction

We live in times of societal turmoil and worrisome political developments. In this article, we link two of the most studied of these developments: the rise of economic inequality and its impact on democracy, and the rise of populism. We analyze whether populist parties moderate the effect of inequality on turnout because they mobilize voter groups that often refrain from participating in politics in unequal societies We test whether both left-wing and right-wing populists have a similar effect because both party groups seek to mobilize the disenchanted and dissatisfied citizens (Schumacher and Rooduijn 2013; van Hauwaert and van Kessel 2018). Our examination of these arguments is based on a self-compiled dataset encompassing data on 296 national parliamentary elections in 31 European countries between 1970 and 2016. The empirical analysis tests several hypotheses, and the final section provides our conclusions

Theoretical Arguments On the Inequality-participation Relationship

Analysis and Empirical Results

Conclusion