Fifty years of nuclear nonproliferation: results, problems, prospects

Abstract

The article analyzes the preparation and conduct of the last six Review Conferences on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1995. At the same time, some historical aspects of the development of the NPT, the most important articles of this treaty are considered fi rst, and the merits of Soviet diplomacy in the formation of the most important provisions of this treaty are particularly noted. The Review Conferences of 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2022 are considered sequentially. For each conference, a brief analysis is given of the international situation that had developed by the beginning of the conference, the positions of States on the eve and during the conferences, as well as what was achieved during each of them. Thus, according to the 1995 conference, it is concluded that this conference was of particular importance for the nuclear nonproliferation regime (NWFZ), since the unconditional achievement of the 1995 conference was the indefi nite extension of the NPT, although the fi nal document was not adopted at this conference. Considering the 2000 Review Conference, it is concluded that, despite all the contradictions between the participating countries of the conference, it ended successfully. The OK participants were able to adopt the fi nal document. The statement adopted at the conference was aimed at the practical implementation of the provisions of article VI of the NPT, which contained 13 practical steps for the implementation of this article. With regard to the 2005 OK, a conclusion is made about a signifi cant deterioration of the international situation on the eve of its holding. The analysis of the events that had a negative impact on compliance with the NPT and led to the emergence of new threats is carried out. Ultimately, it is concluded that the 2005 conference ended in failure because States failed to adopt the fi nal document. On the eve of the 2010 conference, a landmark event was the conclusion of the START III Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States. At the same time, new threats emerged from the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. As a result of the conference, no measures were taken to suspend the nuclear programs of Iran and the DPRK, but the participants of the OK managed to form the fi nal document of the conference, which was adopted unanimously. According to the 2015 conference, it is stated that it was considered unsuccessful, since the participants of this conference failed to agree and adopt an IT document. It is noted that the main reasons for this were acute contradictions between Russia and the United States, as well as the tense international situation against the background of the Ukrainian and Syrian military-political crises. According to the tenth Review Conference, which nevertheless took place in August 2022 after its postponement due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is concluded that it also ended in failure, since States could not agree and adopt the fi nal document at it. At the same time, the responsibility for the absence of a fi nal document at the tenth OK lies entirely with the United States and its allies, since the agenda of the NPT Review Conference was interrupted by the Ukrainian issue. In conclusion, the article summarizes some results of the state of the nuclear nonproliferation regime after 50 years of its existence. The forecast estimates of changes in the international situation in the fi eld of nuclear nonproliferation in the period between the last tenth Review Conference and the next one, which will be held in 2026, are given. At the same time, it is predicted that in the next fi ve years, the situation in the fi eld of international relations and nuclear nonproliferation is likely to only become more complicated.