Fifteen years of global wave hindcasts using winds from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis: Validating the reanalyzed winds and assessing the wave climate

Abstract

The ERA (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) project resulted in a homogeneous data set describing the atmosphere over a time span of 15 years, from 1979 to 1993. To validate (part of) these data against independent observations we use the ERA surface winds to drive the WAM wave model. The modeled significant wave heights are then compared with observations. From this comparison the quality of the forcing winds is assessed. The patterns of computed wave heights agree well with observed patterns, and they are of the right magnitude. This confirms the realistic nature of the ERA winds. If one looks in detail, it appears that the significant wave heights resulting from the model are systematically lower than the observed ones in areas of high winds and waves and higher in areas of low winds and waves. It is argued that underestimation at high winds speeds is most likely a resolution effect, as wind and thus wave peaks are missed by finite resolution in space and time, while overestimation at low wind speeds most likely results from internal WAM errors. It is concluded that the monthly mean ERA winds are slightly (less than 5%) too low in areas of high winds, while from this study it is not possible to draw a decisive conclusion on the quality of ERA winds at low wind speeds. At the same time, the hindcast data form a 15‐year climatology of global waves. This climatology is analyzed in terms of annual cycle and trends. The largest trends in significant wave height occur in the North Atlantic with an increase of more than 12 cm/yr in January, and south of Africa where the increasing trend exceeds 7 cm/yr in July. These trends, however, are only marginally significant. Furthermore, they exhibit a large month‐to‐month variability, so that on a seasonal basis the trends are significant only in small parts of the ocean. In conclusion, we are unable to confirm a significant change in wave height during the ERA period.