Abstract
The aim of this study was to examine disability trends among men and women aged 70+ in Beijing, China; determine whether trends are impacted upon by changes in population composition; and investigate whether trends are experienced similarly across socio-demographic subgroups. Fifteen-year panel data were used to model probability of reporting activities of daily living (ADLs) disability adjusting for age, sex, marital status, residence, and education. Predicted probabilities and average annual percent change in probabilities are reported. The results showed increasing disability trends experienced by men, and stable or decreasing trends by women. Trends would be less favorable had education of older population not increased over time. Trends are much worse when bathing is excluded as an ADLs item. This is because trends in bathing were favorable whereas trends in other activities were not. On balance, results are not overly encouraging for reductions in population-level disability given population aging and increasing life expectancy in China. But, future increasing education could mitigate some increases in disability rates.
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