Abstract
Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches.
Highlights
To assess how climatic changes will affect ecosystems, field researchers commonly use one of two approaches: in situ observations or manipulative experiments
We compared responses of aboveground biomass (AGB) to experimentally applied versus observed drought events in a systematic review using hierarchical meta-analyses
The results were very similar when we conducted an additional, variance-weighted meta-analysis on a subset of data with available estimates of variance: responses were weaker in experimental studies, at less arid sites and in less severe droughts (Supplementary Note 3)
Summary
To assess how climatic changes will affect ecosystems, field researchers commonly use one of two approaches: in situ observations or manipulative experiments. A recent overview of ecological responses to global change[3] found that an overwhelming majority of meta-analyses covered either experimental or observational case studies, while only 3 out of 36 assessed both types. Reviews and meta-analyses of drought effects on net primary production (NPP) or aboveground biomass (AGB) focused almost exclusively on experiments, with only a single synthesis paper covering (but not comparing) both experimental and observational studies (Supplementary Note 1).
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