Field data–driven online prediction model for icing load on power transmission lines

Abstract

Methods for the accurate prediction of icing loads in overhead transmission lines have become an important research topic for electrical power systems as they are necessary for ensuring the safety and stability of power-grid operations. Current machine learning models for the prediction of icing loads on transmission lines are afflicted by the following issues: insufficient prediction accuracy, high randomity in the selection of kernel functions and model parameters, and a lack of generalizability. To address these issues, we propose a field data–driven online prediction model for icing loads on transmission lines. First, the effects of the type of kernel function used in the support vector regression algorithm on the prediction accuracy of the model were analyzed using micrometeorological data and icing data collected by on-site monitoring systems. The particle swarm optimization algorithm was then used to optimize and determine the model parameters such as penalty coefficients. An offline support vector regression prediction model was thus constructed. Using the accurate online support vector regression algorithm, the weighting coefficients of the samples were dynamically adjusted to satisfy the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions, which allowed online updates to be made to the regression function and prediction model. Finally, a simulation analysis was performed using actual icing incidents that occurred in a transmission line of the Yunnan Power Grid, which demonstrated that our model can make online predictions for the icing load on transmission lines in actual applications. Our model proved to be superior to conventional icing-load prediction models with regard to the single-step and multi-step prediction accuracies and generalizability. Hence, our prediction model will improve the decision-making processes regarding the deicing and maintenance of power transmission and transformation systems.