Abstract
USA scientists found a 22-year cycle in Parkfield earthquake sequence, and they predicted that the next quake would come in 1988 ± 5 with 95% possibility, while the quake happened in 2004, which is 11 years later than the prediction. Here, we reanalyze the Parkfield earthquake sequence, and find 11-year cycle; multiple 11-year cycle and Fibonacci sequence existed for earthquake. With these methods, the 2004 earthquake can be predicted well. We also predict that the next earthquake may occur in 2031-2032.
Highlights
IntroductionUSA scientists found that some M6 earthquakes happened in Parkfield, California along the San Andreas Fault occurred repeatedly on January 9, 1857, February 2, 1881, March 3, 1901, March 10, 1922, June 8, 1934, June 28, 1966, and September 28, 2004 [1]
Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment is the world-famous experiment
USA scientists found that some M6 earthquakes happened in Parkfield, California along the San Andreas Fault occurred repeatedly on January 9, 1857, February 2, 1881, March 3, 1901, March 10, 1922, June 8, 1934, June 28, 1966, and September 28, 2004 [1]
Summary
USA scientists found that some M6 earthquakes happened in Parkfield, California along the San Andreas Fault occurred repeatedly on January 9, 1857, February 2, 1881, March 3, 1901, March 10, 1922, June 8, 1934, June 28, 1966, and September 28, 2004 [1]. ± 5 with 95% possibility on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield [2] They decided to launch a long-term experiment to understand the physics of earthquakes—what happens on the fault and in the surrounding region before, during and after an earthquake. About 100 researchers from USGS, universities and government laboratories of USA gathered in Parkfield They constructed a dense network of instruments and tried to “capture” the anticipated earthquake and revealed the earthquake process in unprecedented detail. We analyze the Parkfield earthquake and find an interesting Fibonacci sequence existed for occurrence of earthquake With this sequence, the quake in 2004 can be predicted well
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