Fewer subsidized exits and a recession: How New York City’s family homeless shelter population became immense

Abstract

Between December 1997 and May 2003, the number of families in New York City homeless shelters rose from 4315 to 9303. The 1997–2003 rise in family shelter population in this single city was greater than the combined total shelter populations of Texas and Florida in 2000. Why did this happen? From 1997 through 2000, New York was booming. Shelter population rose during the boom because the city slowed the rate at which it moved families into subsidized housing and it continued to rise after the boom because there was a recession. The population fell when the city stepped up placements into subsidized housing and the recession ended. The relationships are fairly complex. Macroeconomic conditions affect shelter population only with a lag. Placements into subsidized housing do not lure any considerable number of families into the system, but they keep those who are there longer, possibly by affecting the housing market.