Abstract
We present an easily calibrated spatial modeling framework for estimating location-specific fertilizer responses, using smallholder maize farming in Tanzania as a case study. By incorporating spatially varying input and output prices, we predict the expected profitability for a location-specific smallholder farmer. A stochastic rainfall component of the model allows us to quantify the uncertainty around expected economic returns. The resulting mapped estimates of expected profitability and uncertainty are good predictors of actual smallholder fertilizer usage in nationally representative household survey data. The integration of agronomic and economic information in our framework makes it a powerful tool for spatially explicit targeting of agricultural technologies and complementary investments, as well as estimating returns to investments at multiple scales.
Highlights
Smallholder farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa are characterized by persistently low productivity levels
Why are fertilizer usage levels so low? A rich empirical literature has developed in recent years, which emphasizes three key constraints:—agronomic responses to fertilizer are often much lower in farmers’ fields than on researcher-managed trials, and such responses are substantially variable over geographic space [4,5,6,7,8]
A number of empirical studies document such fertilizer profitability patterns for maize farmers in SSA [9,10,11,12,13,14,15]. (See [16] for a recent review of over 20 studies estimating the profitability of applying inorganic fertilizer on maize in various African locations.) Fourth, the stochastic nature of agricultural production in the absence of insurance markets means that small farmers face high variability of expected returns [17]
Summary
Smallholder farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa are characterized by persistently low productivity levels. (See [16] for a recent review of over 20 studies estimating the profitability of applying inorganic fertilizer on maize in various African locations.) Fourth, the stochastic nature of agricultural production in the absence of insurance markets means that small farmers face high variability of expected returns [17]. A number of empirical studies document such fertilizer profitability patterns for maize farmers in SSA [9,10,11,12,13,14,15].
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