Fertility Transition: An Update

Abstract

A major decline in the fertility of de14 veloping countries has occurred in recent decades. This article uses United Nations (UN) data to review the course of the fertility transition since the mid-1960s for less developed countries as a whole, for major regions and individual large countries.* We then examine some specific contributions of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) toward defining and understanding the recent path of fertility decline. Table 1 shows total fertility rates (TFRs) for various regions of the developing world as calculated over five-year periods, and the decline in those rates. As indicated, the overall TFR for less developed countries declined by 30% in the 15 years between the period ending in mid-1970 and the period ending in mid-1985.t The decline was actually 47% of the difference between the TFR in the earlier survey period (6.01) and the target replacement level fertility (2.1).4 In 15 years, the world's less developed countries as a whole moved almost halfway toward the fertility level that is the eventual goal for most of them. Calculated on this basis, the decline was no less than 21% in any region, except in SubSaharan Africa. The TFR for less developed countries as a whole was estimated to have fallen only 3% in the 15 years before the 1965-1970 period, but 10% in the five years between the 1965-1970 and 1970-1975 periods,1 supporting the observation that the onset of sustained fertility decline only began in the late 1960s. A 47% overall decline toward replacement-level fertility in 15 years may be considered grossly inadequate by those who feel that more rapid fertility declines are badly needed in these less developed countries. While we do not deny that more rapid fertility declines would be desirable, we view the declines that have occurred as substantial-even remarkable in historical perspective-in view of several considerations. First, few observers were predicting such declines in 1965. The medium projection in 1968 assessment by the UN Population Division provided for a 15% decline in the TFR for less developed countries between the periods of 19651970 and 1980-1985.2 As we report, the decline was 30%. Projections underestimated fertility decline largely because the rates of change in social and economic development and the growth of effective family planning programs that occurred in those countries in which fertility declined were generally unexpected. Second, these declines required massive changes in reproductive behavior believed to be deeply rooted in traditional values and familial institutions. Third, family planning programs were only getting under way in 1965-1970, and, where they were in place, they were in their infancy. In 1960, only India had a national program, and it was proving ineffective. For a major fertility decline in these countries to occur, the proportion of married women of childbearing age using contraception had to increase-as it did-from